Will we get epic surf this winter (2026) due to the warm water?

How the extremely hot water causes swell (but also kills it)

Think of a low-pressure area at sea as a steam engine. The warm seawater and evaporation are the coal. The warmer the water, the faster that warm air rises and the deeper the storm digs out, and therefore the harder it blows on the open sea.

Then there is a second player: the jet stream. Think of it as the railway at an altitude of ten kilometers, and the low-pressure areas as the trains following that track towards Europe.

Because the ocean is so warm right now, an extra amount of warm air is rising, causing the jet stream to meander. If that jet stream makes a deep bend to the south, the tracks are suddenly pointed directly at our coasts, and the storms drive straight here.

Autumn or winter: when to book?

Autumn (September to December) is the sweet spot. The ocean is at its warmest, while the first cold air is already arriving from the north. That contrast ignites the engine lightning fast, with the risk of those typical bombs where the pressure collapses within a few hours. The advantage: the local wind along our coasts often remains reasonably mild, while the ocean is already spewing out groundswells with periods of 16 to 20 seconds.

Winter and early spring (January to April) are more grueling. The ocean cools down somewhat, but the atmosphere remains chaotic. Low-pressure systems get stuck more frequently just off the coast, and that means days of persistent, devastating onshore wind in Northern and Central Europe. The waves remain large, but the wind ruins a large part of the days.

What does this mean per region

1. Our backyard: Wenduine, Blankenberge, Ostend

For waves here, we need one specific trick: the famous NNW funnel off Scotland. The wind has to blow hard through a narrow passage there for hours to deliver a built-up, clean windswell here.

The verdict : the warm seawater hardly helps the North Sea itself, because it cools down quickly and is far too shallow to build up anything on its own. If the low-pressure systems linger too close to England, we will simply get a messy SW onshore. If the jet stream takes a northerly dive, we will get a few of those rare, ice-cold, mechanical NNW days.

2. France and Northern Spain: Hossegor, Capbreton, Zarautz

The classic autumn and winter destination for Belgians with a campervan.

The verdict : high risk, high reward. The extremely warm water in the Bay of Biscay is a local storm factory in itself. There is a high risk that storms will form so close to the coast that you will be stuck with blown-out conditions for weeks—think of a four-meter wall of water with strong onshore wind and rain. But the warm seawater also regularly ensures perfect offshore mornings in Les Landes in the autumn, and that means perfect barrels on the sandbars. Bring your step-up kite anyway, because the mass of water is going to be serious. Or look for sheltered spots like St Jean de Luz.

3. Portugal: Ericeira and the Algarve

Ericeira is the swell sponge of Europe, the Algarve is your lifebuoy when things get too crazy.

Around Ericeira, all the ocean's energy really comes in. With the expected deep lows, it will be regularly maxed out here this winter on the exposed beach breaks. Fortunately, there are the reefs and bays near Peniche and Lisbon that convert that energy perfectly into beautiful lines.

The Algarve is where things get tactically interesting. When the warm water whips up storms on the ocean, the west coast near Sagres is unsurfable. But because the jet stream often steers the storms just above Portugal, that same swell curls nicely around the corner towards the south coast. And there you are, standing in your 3/2mm wetsuit in a sunny bay with a strong offshore wind.

4. Morocco: Taghazout and Imsouane

If the puzzle pieces of this warm water fit together perfectly anywhere, it is around Agadir.

Morocco lies far enough south to avoid the heavy storm winds itself, but because the jet stream dives deep to the southeast through the warm water, that energy rolls in towards Africa as a neatly ordered, long-duration groundswell. Anchor Point, Boilers, and Imsouane can easily handle those big swells. While France turns into a washing machine at a three-meter swell, Anchor Point becomes perfect at that same swell. Add the northeasterly trade winds on top of that, and you understand why La Catédrale is on our list.

How do you spot the perfect swell on the charts?

Do you want to make the right decision between driving or flying this winter? Pay attention to these three things on Surfline:

• The pressure drop (hPa) : does a low-pressure area over the ocean drop below 960 hPa? Then the engine is running at full throttle. Make sure your gear is ready.
• The swell period(s) : don't just look at the height in meters, but especially at the seconds. If you see 16 to 20 seconds, the energy deep in the ocean is enormous and you will get powerful, clean sets.

Conclusion: Prepare board bag or not?

Yes, absolutely. The amount of energy currently stored in the ocean by the warm water is unusually high. That is inevitably going to lead to some powerful XL and XXL swells along the European and North African coasts, and that is exactly the compensation we need after a quiet summer.

The secret for this winter lies in flexibility. Don't get stuck at just one beach break in France, because the chance of windblown chaos is simply greater there due to the local heat. If you want guaranteed surf, clean lines, and sun on your face, set your sights south. Southern Portugal and Morocco will be very hard to beat this winter.

Do you have a question of your own about gear, weather, trip destinations, or the T-man barber? Drop your question into our SEPAMA via the website or social media, and we might cover it in the next show or blog post.

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